Gold experienced a slight correction in the European session on Tuesday (February 10th), but remained above $5,000/oz as the market held its breath ahead of a series of US data that could alter interest rate expectations. Spot gold fell around 0.2% to $5,047.11/oz.

What kept gold resilient wasn't just the data and the weakening dollar, but also the persistent geopolitical risk premium. Most notably, US-Iran tensions have once again brought the Strait of Hormuz into the spotlight. The US recently issued guidelines for US-flagged vessels passing through to stay away from Iranian territorial waters and verbally refused boarding requests a signal that Washington considers the risk in the world's most important energy route to be "elevated."

The market understands that Hormuz is more than just a headline: a significant portion of the Gulf region's energy flows pass through it, so any escalation (even just a "rule of passage") could change supply risk calculations. Moreover, although the Oman mediated US - Iran nuclear talks are said to be proceeding constructively, core issues such as uranium enrichment and other demands remain sticking points, fueling uncertainty.

On another front, the uncertainty is also fueled by the European-Russian conflict. The European Union has proposed a new sanctions package that, for the first time, targets ports in third countries (Georgia and Indonesia) that handle Russian oil. If these tightening measures move from documentation to implementation, energy markets and logistics costs (shipping, insurance, routes) could be affected and ultimately, gold will benefit from safe haven flows.

Meanwhile, Macron has also played along: he warned that Europe must be prepared for a new "hostile moment" from the US and called the "Greenland moment" a wake up call for the EU to accelerate reforms to improve competitiveness and strategic independence. For the market, messages like this reinforce the narrative of a more fragmented world which historically tends to favor safe-haven assets like gold.

So, although gold fell slightly today, the context is more about profit-taking and wait and see. As long as geopolitics remains heated (Hormuz) and the economic sanctions/conflict landscape widens (Russia – EU, EU – US tensions), corrections can quickly turn into dip-buying especially if US data weakens the dollar or the market believes the Fed should be more dovish. (arl) [sma]

Source : Newsmaker.id